Why we should not let Kosovo become independent.

It is, of course, the romantic thing to do. The valiant and ancient people of Kosovo, who have endured so much hardship over such a long time at the hands of such an evil, oppressive regime should receive their own nation, sovereign among the people of the world. But romantic notions have seldom had anything to do with reality and steadfastly refuse to be bothered by anything as mundane as real world consequences. So leaving romanticism as a failed nineteenth century experiment behind us let’s look at what is best. For us, them and anyone caught in between.

When Kosovo has been in the news lately it has been because of developments in the talks between the Serbs, ethnic Albanian Kosovars and the UN but this doesn’t, by any means mean that the province has been peaceful since the last outbreak of publicized violence. Protests, clashes with security forces and even murder is commonplace and frustrating cooperation between the two communities now living apart in Kosovo is daily reality. It is fair to say that there is next to no communication between the Serbian and ethnic Albanian population of Kosovo. Doing so comes with great risk of reprisals from Nationalists on both sides and is therefore no more than incidental. A good example of this is the Mitrovica a town in the North of Kosovo. It is the largest urban center for the Serbs living in the North of Kosovo. Mitrovica is where the ethnic line between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians is most evident. It is the place in Kosovo where a large Serbian population and ethnic Albanian population live in close proximity to each other. The river Ibar, that cuts the city in two, also acts as dividing line between the two communities. Residential buildings on both sides of the river are sometimes just 50 meters apart, with only the water and KFOR soldiers as physical barriers.
The river is not only a border between communities, its also a border when it comes to administration of the region and basics requirements such as water and electricity.
The power plant that provides power to the entire town is located on the Kosovar side. This power plant serves Pristina, and North Kosovo. Under its role as civil administrator the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) sees to it that all communities are provided with essentials. This requires constant pressure on Albanian Kosovar politicians and utility companies to ensures that the Serbian side is also provided with electricity. The problem is that Kosovo is a net importer of electricity on the one hand, with its own power stations close to the provincial capital Pristina struggling to cope, and on the other hand shady money making schemes mean that sometimes local electricity is pumped to Albania, instead of North Kosovo. Merchants that sell diesel and gasoline powered generators make a decent living all over Kosovo.
Even with an unreliable electricity supply, the problem widens in that the Serbs do not pay for the electricity used. Is this stubborn nationalism? In part perhaps but more importantly the office where the Serbians need to register to even be able to pay is also located on the Albanian Kosovar side of Mitrovica, and going there means risking their own lives, from Nationalist on both sides. The UN has refused to open an office on the Serbian side of town because this would clash with their policy that Serbians and Kosovars need to use the same facilities in order to not grown apart any further. A policy that clearly isn’t working. The Serbian community in Kosovo is serviced almost entirely by a clandestine (meaning not UN approved) Belgrade led civil service. As shown this is not just Nationalistic stubbornness but plain necessity as well. Kosovo has become a rich export ground for second rate Albanian (the country) made products. Not because Serbia refuses export of its own goods to Albanian controlled areas but because there is a notion among nationalistic Kosovars that they need to be self sufficient and not dependant for anything on the regional industrial monopolist, Serbia. Medical supplies, building materials and food items such as beer and Coca Cola are imported from Serbia on a large scale. But there is a substantial Albanian Kosovar nationalistic bloc that deems this to be against Kosovar interests such as independence and an economy based on local production. Small shopkeepers and government officials alike get pressured verbally or sometimes even worse by this bloc to go for “Patriotic products”. Groups like vetevendosje (self-determination) pressure locals and provide propaganda against Serbians and Serbian products. We can conclude from this that normal contact between both communities in Kosovo are rare. The talks on the final status of Kosovo with the UN are the only recurrent way for the two sides to meet each other but here little more than recriminations are lobbed from one side to the other.

All this still doesn’t explain, however, why Kosovo should not become independent. For starters it would not solve a single problem in that province today. The UN policy of forcing both communities to work together and their dream of a future multi ethnic state is not working today and there is no reason to suspect it will work in an independent Kosovo. It is much more likely that such an attempt would have no effect on altering the current situation. Nationalistic Kosovars, the very people who are running Albanian Kosovo want all Serbs out, they do not want, and have shown no signs to ever accepts Serbs living in Kosovo. How will that change by giving them an independent state with administrative control over those Serbs and access to an armed forces which they assume they are free to use? At the very least it would require continued armed presence from European and US forces who would increasingly come into conflict with Kosovar armed forces and the inevitable Serbian counter punch. A recipe for crisis if not disaster.

But this doesn’t stop at the border of Kosovo. The Nationalistic Albanian Kosovars, again those who are in control, have a dream of a Grand Albanian state on the Balkans that encompasses not only Albania itself and Kosovo but also parts of Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and as far North as Bosnia-Herzegovina. It is an outspoken wish by ethnic Albanians to join with Albania and form a single state. Independence, in its limited form proposed by Ahtisaari, for Kosovo is only a first step for them to achieve their larger goal and they are making no secret of this. Ahtisaari has proposed a limited sovereignty for Kosovo with strict assurances for ethnic minorities. Apart from Serbs there was also a substantial Roma community in Kosovo as well as several smaller minorities including Turks and Bosniaks (Muslim from Bosnia-Herzegovina). These assurances would include the right to return for those who fled during the 1999 Kosovo war. The Serb population declined in that conflict from 19% to just under 10%. The preceding examples should be enough to show how little interest either side has of setting up a multi ethnic state. Living together just isn’t going to happen. Failure of the Ahtisaari plan is virtually guaranteed opening the door for Albanians to seize more power and declare unilateral independence. The recent US move of promising to recognize such a move only shows how little the US truly understands of the precarious situation in the Balkans.

That the dream of independence and a grand Albanian state will not stop at the borders of Kosovo should be clear to anyone as this has already caused a near war in Macedonia in the first half of 2001. Ethnic Albanian incursions into southern Serbia are also on record. Granting Kosovar independence is therefore opening a door to further destabilization of the Balkan.

It needs to be noted how several organizations and governments have played a disreputable role in the developments inside Kosovo and the larger region. Kosovo was and still is the poorest province of Serbia. This wasn’t caused by the current conflict or previous conflicts. The economic basis for prosperity simply isn’t there. It is a backward province of a backward region. Kosovo has seen the influx of large sums both in the form of direct funds for rebuilding and the tens of thousands of foreigners who have come to Kosovo as part of NATO’s stabilization force, the UN administration or one of numerous charities and who spend their money in restaurants and shops. The belief has taken hold among ordinary ethnic Albanians that this false prosperity will continue and that the European union will continue to spend billions annually to prop up the failing economy. This isn’t helped by the previous promise made by the US that an independent Kosovo will become part of the EU. Ignoring the continued US policy of promising countries and peoples access to an organization they are no part of and have no say over we can conclude that an independent Kosovo has no place in the EU. All EU member states first need to prove that they are deserving of EU membership before entering. In absolutely no way does Kosovo qualify for this. This test is not in place because of self-serving disinterest but because, although the EU has strong capabilities for political and economic pressure it lacks any kind method of force of arms to back up its claims if political and economic pressure fail. Ethnic Albanians and Serbians alike have a history of ignoring any kind of pressure short of the force of arms.
The UN itself has also proven it is unable to make headway in the conflict. This is mostly due to its own ignorance of the true situation on the grounds. Its own headstrong persistence of clinging to its own fantasy of a multi ethnic state in Kosovo despite overbearing evidence to the contrary has only helped to alienate the Serbian community in Kosovo and the Belgrade officials. It has also given the Albanians the belief that if they persist long enough they can achieve their dream of a Greater Albanian state with the help of the UN and the EU. The Serbs are by no means victims in this conflict but neither are the Albanians. The continued US policy of treating one side as perpetrators that need to be punished is, at best, not constructive at worst counterproductive. On its current course the situation in Kosovo is heading for another open war that threatens to spill over into neighboring territories.

The true situation in Kosovo today leaves little room to maneuver for all parties. Nationalistic pride on both sides is easily hurt but giving in to these feelings will only help alienate the other side and make the achievement of a solution even more difficult. Today the only course of action that gives the possibility of a lasting peace is one where the Albanian struggle is contained within the borders of Kosovo. To achieve this independence needs to be avoided. The best solution within reach is to divide Kosovo in a Serbian part, administered from Belgrade and an autonomous ethnic Albanian part administered by the EU while Kosovo as a province remains part of Serbia. It is worth noting that the security resolution 1244 (that established the UN mission in Kosovo) calls for the eventual return of Serbian security forces with limited tasks like border patrols and protection of the Serbian community. This would still require a continued presence of the NATO stabilization force but that is true whatever the outcome. Although far from ideal it is simply an acknowledgement of an already existing situation and one that allows for a gradual waning of the present tensions. This is also the exact extend of a Serbian proposal for a solution, one that was rejected by the UN out of hand because of their continued belief in the fairy tale of an multi ethnic state.

Authored by Th X Kurpershoek and Th Huisman